Muddy-Bear
0x0aa7ae72ec172b4e42383bad7bcf8f25db580d77
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$20.96
Total PnL
$0.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Lot 7 Henri Matisse’s “Figure décorative” sell for 15m or more?
9 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$9.20
$0.07
- YES
Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$7.24
$0.01
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 45% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
5 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$4.52
$0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?$7.23Nov 19, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani get between 45% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$4.49Nov 19, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lot 7 Henri Matisse’s “Figure décorative” sell for 15m or more?$9.13Nov 19, 11:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$2.49Nov 19, 11:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?$3.79Nov 19, 11:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings?$4.24Nov 19, 11:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?$4.35Nov 19, 11:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?$5.98Nov 19, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings?$3.90Oct 16, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?$3.78Oct 16, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?$4.34Oct 16, 09:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?$5.99Oct 16, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lebron announce trade or trade request Tuesday? $6.03Oct 16, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebron announce trade or trade request Tuesday? $6.01Oct 7, 14:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout be less than 60% in the Czech election?$6.00Oct 7, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout be less than 60% in the Czech election?$5.99Oct 4, 12:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?$5.99Oct 4, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?$11.97Oct 4, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?$11.98Oct 4, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?$17.97Oct 4, 11:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $13.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 8, 16:53 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 19, 11:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.