Variable-Reserve
0x0acc1ce1cac877f54fea468cab36445e6cac1e4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$4.80
Total PnL
$-1.71
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Bitcoin above $63,000 on September 27?
3 shares @ 76.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2024$2.63
$0.63
- YES
Ethereum above $2,500 on September 27?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2024$1.18
$0.18
- YES
US bank failure by October 31?
1 shares @ 10.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2024$1.00
$0.90
- YES
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency?
50 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will Joe Biden be D-nom for VP on Election Day?
50 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4?
33 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?
33 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?
33 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote?
33 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 27?
25 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLU.S. recession before May 2025?$2.35Oct 20, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?$1.30Oct 15, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?$2.45Sep 26, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024?$0.25Sep 26, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?$0.80Sep 26, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recession before May 2025?$1.50Sep 26, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $63,000 on September 27?$1.00Sep 26, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joe Biden be D-nom for VP on Election Day?$0.10Sep 25, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "Crypto/Bitcoin" during his Georgia speech?$0.00Sep 25, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during his Georgia speech?$0.00Sep 25, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 538 correctly call the Presidential Election?$0.10Sep 25, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?$0.10Sep 25, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?$0.10Sep 25, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency?$0.10Sep 25, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump vs. Boden: First to 1B$0.10Sep 25, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUY$PEPE vs. $WIF - First to $10B?$0.10Sep 25, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin new all time high in 2024?$0.10Sep 25, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?$0.10Sep 25, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $60,000 on October 1?$0.10Sep 25, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above $2,500 on September 27?$1.00Sep 25, 08:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $0.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 23, 19:52 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 20, 21:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".