Wonderful-Kimono
0x0ade405b51a5f7f98052fc464e0bfe36b63aab6b
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-153.37
Realised
$-32.78
Win rate
91%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
350 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29?
300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 10?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
233 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11PM ET
215 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 29?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 21?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 23?$0.02Aug 23, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 23?$0.02Aug 23, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 23?$0.02Aug 23, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 22?$0.01Aug 22, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 22?$0.01Aug 22, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?$0.01Aug 21, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 21?$0.02Aug 21, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?$0.01Aug 20, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 19?$0.01Aug 19, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on August 18?$0.01Aug 18, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $70 on August 18?$0.01Aug 18, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 17?$0.01Aug 17, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 17?$0.01Aug 17, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17?$0.01Aug 17, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 16?$0.01Aug 16, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 15?$0.01Aug 15, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 15?$0.01Aug 15, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 14?$0.01Aug 14, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 14?$0.01Aug 14, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 14?$0.01Aug 14, 03:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 20/100.
55 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 13:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 12:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.