Fancy-Shawl
0x0aefae13b198f0d755da5be503c9da0c14ecfa32
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-72.45
Realised
$-1.98
Win rate
0%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 3?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026?
59 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.48
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?
44 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $31.4B?
40 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?
37 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $660 Week of July 20 2026?
26 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Honeywell (HON) beat quarterly earnings?
25 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q2 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 0%-2%?
21 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of July 27 2026?
18 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of July 27 2026?$7.14Jul 30, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 29, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of July 27 2026?$1.04Jul 27, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of July 27 2026?$1.04Jul 27, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of July 27 2026?$2.07Jul 27, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of July 27 2026?$2.06Jul 27, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 Week of July 27 2026?$2.06Jul 27, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of July 27 2026?$2.06Jul 27, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 27 2026?$2.06Jul 27, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $236 Week of July 20 2026?$10.00Jul 23, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $325 Week of July 20 2026?$6.67Jul 23, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYThermo Fisher (TMO) Q2 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 0%-2%?$3.10Jul 20, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $31.4B?$5.18Jul 20, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Honeywell (HON) beat quarterly earnings?$3.13Jul 20, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?$3.14Jul 20, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings?$3.12Jul 20, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Intel (INTC) beat quarterly earnings?$3.11Jul 20, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5$2.99Jul 19, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.05Jul 19, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?$1.73Jul 19, 08:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
30 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 10:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 01:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.