Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.2K

Realised

$-16.90

Win rate

35 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 35

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
387 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
268 shares @ 31.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026
$0.00
$-84.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
259 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-140.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
223 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-60.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
117 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-70.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
116 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-57.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
105 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
96 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$0.91Jul 22, 14:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.05Jul 22, 14:57 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$0.37Jul 22, 09:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$2.14Jul 22, 09:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$51.07Jun 25, 17:03 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$64.10Jun 25, 16:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$50.97Jun 25, 15:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$51.04Jun 25, 15:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$65.79Jun 25, 13:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$51.04Jun 25, 13:31 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$57.00Jun 25, 09:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$50.93Jun 25, 09:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$20.49Jun 23, 17:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$5.16Jun 23, 14:17 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$7.81Jun 23, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$5.14Jun 23, 14:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$7.18Jun 23, 13:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$5.15Jun 23, 13:48 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$7.24Jun 23, 11:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$5.13Jun 23, 11:32 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

6% win rate over 35 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

35 closed markets, 6% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry57 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $11.96
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 11, 21:59 UTC
Last active: Jul 22, 14:58 UTC
Win rate sample: 35 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:38:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data