Radiant-Dahlia
0x0b01d14b4f91acdf61534543d4a645f142238f47
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$159.48
Win rate
70%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
22185 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$144.20
$-77.65
- NO
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
154 shares @ 79.3¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$123.97
$1.77
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?
83 shares @ 63.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$83.00
$30.57
- YES
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1175 shares @ 4.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$64.04
$11.23
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2074 shares @ 2.6¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$63.26
$8.80
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 76.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$58.11
$12.51
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
55 shares @ 5.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$55.36
$52.59
- YES
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$52.50
$-82.50
- NO
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
37 shares @ 41.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$37.39
$21.84
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
30 shares @ 54.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$29.73
$13.53
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.