Political-Clarinet
0x0b0c51f339ca2741ba170452db369063902079a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$880.11
Total PnL
$-239.78
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1170 shares @ 25.6¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$327.12
$27.13
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2198 shares @ 9.1¢·now 14.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$317.58
$117.58
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
148 shares @ 67.7¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$84.18
$-15.82
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
62 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$52.78
$2.78
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
106 shares @ 47.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$46.28
$-3.72
- YES
AI bubble burst in 2026?
219 shares @ 22.8¢·now 16.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.61
$-13.39
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
189 shares @ 5.3¢·now 8.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$15.57
$5.57
- YES
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Sergio Massa win?
1000 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2023$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
750 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-205.00
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 9, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $51.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 21:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.