Precious-Contour
0x0b482c0616a68f076d3bf1128e040336714b0415
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$19.91
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$-22.87
Win rate
37%
67 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
115 shares @ 39.2¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.41
$-30.79
- YES
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
100 shares @ 20.8¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.50
$-15.30
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 15?
9039 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-56.20
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
4179 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-72.09
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
3100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.20
- YES
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?
2210 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.19
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 8?
1411 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-60.32
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 16?
1410 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-9.90
- UP
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on January 20?
1172 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.17
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1030 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-6.61
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$2.50Aug 17, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30?$12.42Jul 30, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?$5.60Jul 29, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.32Jul 29, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$4.25Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.15Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.49Jul 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$2.37Jul 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYLa Velada del Año 6: La Parce vs Fabiana Sevillano$5.10Jul 25, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYLa Velada del Año 6: Clersss vs Natalia MX$6.40Jul 25, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?$6.00Jul 23, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?$10.00Jul 23, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?$4.95Jul 22, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21?$0.29Jul 21, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21?$1.60Jul 21, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21?$0.86Jul 21, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21?$1.89Jul 21, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21?$0.16Jul 21, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21?$0.48Jul 21, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21?$0.12Jul 21, 11:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 67 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
67 closed markets, 37% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $11.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 21:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 67 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.