Black-And-White-Hydrocarbon
0x0b4e63de93149f79a55bdf14566f3ef0c144f3ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$40.67
Total PnL
$-239.97
Realised
$-15.58
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
50 shares @ 82.4¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$40.67
$-0.52
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition
756 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-89.93
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
186 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-16.74
- YES
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?
184 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-32.67
- YES
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June?
184 shares @ 13.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2025$0.00
$-25.38
- YES
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June?
184 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2025$0.00
$-24.48
- YES
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June?
184 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.99
- YES
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June?
184 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2025$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 10-20%?
50 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?
50 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-6.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?$41.20Feb 5, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?$50.00Feb 5, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?$9.13Oct 11, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?$23.54Oct 11, 14:07 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition$32.00Oct 10, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the California redistricting referendum pass by 30-40%?$3.47Oct 7, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the California redistricting referendum pass by 40% or more?$2.26Oct 7, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?$17.00Oct 7, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the California redistricting referendum pass by 10-20%?$17.50Oct 7, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?$6.50Oct 7, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition$13.31Oct 6, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition$26.28Oct 6, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition$97.92Oct 6, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMFed rate cut in 2025?$186.00Oct 2, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$16.74Aug 12, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut in 2025?$167.56Aug 12, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? $184.00Aug 12, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? $1.99Jun 18, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? $25.38Jun 18, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? $128.47Jun 18, 07:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $34.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 06:36 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 5, 08:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.