Terrible-Hotdog
0x0bd0615e1b600723d3d9408130e4a9b870fd67b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$-323.95
Realised
$-96.14
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
1316 shares @ 81.3¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.0K
$-29.97
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?
447 shares @ 89.5¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$344.18
$-55.82
- YES
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
493 shares @ 81.2¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$322.74
$-77.26
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
347 shares @ 78.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$313.62
$42.70
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
734 shares @ 27.3¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$245.74
$45.74
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?
233 shares @ 86.0¢·now 89.1¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$207.21
$7.21
- NO
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?
213 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$200.74
$0.74
- NO
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?
211 shares @ 94.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$197.36
$-2.64
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
129 shares @ 77.2¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$93.23
$-6.77
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
42 shares @ 77.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$36.16
$4.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$10.00Jul 1, 11:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?$26.91Jul 1, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?$100.91Jul 1, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?$401.68Jul 1, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$199.16Jul 1, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on June 30?$210.63Jul 1, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?$625.04Jul 1, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$12.23Jul 1, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$14.39Jul 1, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?$20.21Jul 1, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?$201.12Jul 1, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?$30.26Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?$90.92Jul 1, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 3?$200.00Jul 1, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$200.00Jul 1, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$103.08Jul 1, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$10.16Jul 1, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$102.66Jul 1, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?$30.12Jul 1, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?$108.85Jul 1, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $229.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 00:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 11:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.