Exemplary-Tension
0x0c224670b7840e2c1e0ed1ceb8c430ebabd18356
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-110.04
Realised
$-5.42
Win rate
36%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?
200 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?
133 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.06
- YES
Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?
90 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?
60 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.08
- YES
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of November 10 above $285?
57 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-44.53
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?
40 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of November 10 above $285?$44.53Nov 12, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of November 10 above $265?$44.52Nov 12, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of November 10 above $265?$41.42Nov 9, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?$1.00Nov 9, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 8-11?$2.00Nov 9, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?$38.12Aug 22, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files?$5.83Aug 22, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?$19.00Aug 22, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?$19.00Aug 22, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 240–254 times?$1.00Aug 21, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?$1.00Aug 13, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?$1.28Aug 12, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?$15.00Aug 12, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?$1.48Aug 12, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15?$1.00Aug 12, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?$14.00Aug 12, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon Musk tweets 25+ times Sunday?$1.00Aug 10, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon Musk tweets 25+ times Saturday?$1.00Aug 9, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?$2.00Aug 7, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?$2.96Aug 7, 13:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 05:00 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 12, 13:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.