Ornery-Sulfur
0x0cc36dce0a7825ab5f589e1a73309880b15fedf0
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-26.6K
Realised
$602.50
Win rate
78%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?
29357 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-502.89
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?
28546 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-886.52
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9?
25360 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-64.24
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 12?
22041 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-59.36
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 12?
20128 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-186.47
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 15?
19123 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-167.04
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
18589 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-288.31
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 15?
18142 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-110.37
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 10?
17776 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-26.65
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 9?
17336 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-149.66
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$20.93Jun 30, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$0.50Jun 30, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$2.16Jun 30, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$1.05Jun 30, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$0.04Jun 30, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$8.89Jun 30, 18:08 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.23Jun 30, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$38.37Jun 30, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$19.99Jun 29, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$61.07Jun 29, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$2.55Jun 29, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$1.83Jun 29, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$36.55Jun 29, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$22.22Jun 29, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$32.45Jun 29, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$10.73Jun 29, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$149.44Jun 29, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$32.06Jun 29, 13:44 UTC
- REDEEMSpain to score first vs. Uruguay?$222.00Jun 27, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain to score first vs. Uruguay?$0.01Jun 27, 00:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
36 closed markets, 78% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $17.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 14:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 19:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.