Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-310.59

Realised

$-11.83

Win rate

31 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 31

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina?
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
82 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
81 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-43.62
OVER
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5
70 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-26.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
46 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
46 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$0.00Jul 24, 22:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$26.19Jul 24, 22:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.22Jul 24, 22:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$26.84Jul 24, 22:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$25.52Jul 24, 22:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$25.80Jul 24, 21:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$0.00Jul 24, 21:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$25.54Jul 24, 21:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$9.02Jul 24, 21:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.23Jul 24, 21:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.06Jul 24, 20:48 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$35.46Jul 24, 19:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$25.54Jul 24, 19:46 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$1.35Jul 24, 19:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$5.19Jul 24, 19:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$1.07Jul 24, 19:34 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$7.93Jul 24, 19:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$5.16Jul 24, 19:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.06Jul 24, 18:17 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$0.00Jul 24, 17:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 31 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

31 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry45 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $25.65
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 13:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 24, 22:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 31 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:56:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data