Incompatible-Sill
0x0d0e8946594da639761ce2f2c70cb3fbb3b0a060
Wallet digest
Activity score
28/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-218.69
Realised
$-12.15
Win rate
0%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on February 20?
833 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 18?
625 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 18?
500 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 15?
442 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 16?
436 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 18?
433 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 16?
415 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 20?
267 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on February 16?
246 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$8.00Apr 11, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Azamat Murzakanov win by KO or TKO?$2.07Apr 11, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Azamat Murzakanov win by KO or TKO?$8.54Apr 11, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$5.87Apr 11, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$6.20Apr 11, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$10.00Apr 11, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?$9.43Apr 11, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$4.91Apr 11, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$3.75Apr 11, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$0.00Apr 10, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$0.00Apr 10, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$0.00Apr 10, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$0.00Apr 10, 23:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$0.00Apr 10, 23:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$4.90Apr 10, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$3.65Apr 10, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$3.55Apr 10, 23:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $4.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 01:33 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 18:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.