Generous-Muffin
0x0d1048ec2a35bb690b217181bf5859d772b9a713
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$90.06
Win rate
67%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3?
2300 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2?
803 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-14.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on July 22?
803 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-6.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12?
746 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-15.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14?
700 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 11?
674 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 10?
522 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.62
- YES
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 10?
450 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6?
435 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-18.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?$20.00Jul 27, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?$0.17Jul 27, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?$0.31Jul 27, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?$1.20Jul 27, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?$2.00Jul 27, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?$1.92Jul 27, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?$1.20Jul 27, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 27?$2.80Jul 27, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?$1.14Jul 27, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?$0.12Jul 27, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?$0.44Jul 27, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?$0.20Jul 27, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?$0.10Jul 27, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 27?$5.20Jul 27, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on July 27?$0.63Jul 27, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 26?$93.45Jul 27, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C on July 27?$1.58Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 26?$11.54Jul 26, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?$30.00Jul 26, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 26?$10.00Jul 26, 22:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 12:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 22:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.