Tempting-Compensation
0x0d256fbd69324f14fb645591617e5886e1a50027
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-186.40
Realised
$183.52
Win rate
75%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?
1010 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
600 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2025$0.00
$-61.84
- YES
Will Andrew Tate tweet less than 160 times Jan 24-31?
500 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.50
- YES
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
400 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2025$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
400 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2025$0.00
$-28.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2025$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
165 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2025$0.00
$-16.50
- YES
Solana above $240 on February 7?
150 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2025$0.00
$-63.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?
120 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?
115 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2025$0.00
$-15.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$6.00Apr 4, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$1.62Apr 4, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$1.38Apr 4, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$8.00Apr 4, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $80000 on April 4?$3.28Apr 4, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $80000 on April 4?$7.22Apr 4, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$2.85Apr 4, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$2.75Apr 4, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$1.40Apr 4, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$8.00Apr 4, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4?$12.42Apr 4, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $80000 on April 4?$2.64Apr 4, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $80000 on April 4?$0.33Apr 4, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $80000 on April 4?$3.30Apr 4, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $80000 on April 4?$3.63Apr 4, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4?$0.74Apr 4, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4?$9.25Apr 4, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$4.50Apr 4, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4?$4.50Apr 4, 10:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?$64.99Apr 4, 08:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 14:23 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 4, 15:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.