Wallet digest

active

Activity score

41/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

154

Open notional

$10.26

Total PnL

$-191.60

Realised

$-7.99

Win rate

146 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 154

NO
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 1 - 3 AFC Bournemouth?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 23, 2026
$2.00
$-0.00
NO
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 3 AFC Bournemouth?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026
$1.94
$0.01
YES
Will Tigres FC vs. Envigado FC end in a draw?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026
$1.41
$0.41
GENOA CFC
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)
1 shares @ 73.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$1.00
$0.00
NO
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 2 AFC Bournemouth?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026
$0.99
$-0.01
NO
Exact Score: Venezia FC 2 - 3 US Lecce?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 23, 2026
$0.98
$-0.02
YES
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-08-21?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026
$0.98
$-0.02
OVER
RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 0.5
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2026
$0.96
$-0.04
SHO SHIMABUKURO
Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs J.J. Wolf
1222 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
THIAGO AGUSTIN TIRANTE
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
1005 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-08-21?$1.05Aug 17, 05:24 UTC
REDEEMValorant: Cloud9 vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In$1.04Aug 17, 05:23 UTC
TRADEBUYClub Tijuana vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5$1.06Aug 17, 05:12 UTC
TRADEBUYClub Tijuana vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5$1.06Aug 17, 05:12 UTC
REDEEMSpread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)$1.61Aug 17, 05:11 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: Cloud9 vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In$1.01Aug 17, 03:02 UTC
REDEEMSpread: CF América (-1.5)$1.11Aug 17, 03:02 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)$1.03Aug 17, 01:02 UTC
REDEEMUnion San Felipe vs. CD Cobreloa Calama: O/U 3.5$1.02Aug 17, 01:02 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: CF América (-1.5)$1.01Aug 17, 00:21 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-16?$1.05Aug 17, 00:21 UTC
REDEEMWill CA Mineiro win on 2026-08-15?$1.82Aug 17, 00:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: SS Lazio (-1.5)$1.05Aug 16, 20:49 UTC
REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5$1.54Aug 16, 20:48 UTC
TRADEBUYUnion San Felipe vs. CD Cobreloa Calama: O/U 3.5$1.01Aug 16, 19:58 UTC
TRADEBUYCR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5$1.02Aug 16, 19:58 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Manchester City?$2.15Aug 16, 19:58 UTC
TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds$1.03Aug 16, 19:21 UTC
REDEEMRCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 5.5$1.03Aug 16, 19:20 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$1.05Aug 16, 19:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 146 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

146 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity67 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry45 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $1.04
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 13, 20:09 UTC
Last active: Aug 17, 05:24 UTC
Win rate sample: 146 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 14:36:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data