Thin-Equity
0x0d472f7ae5747815625bb22978453e6709cde252
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-129.54
Realised
$3.85
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4AM ET
700 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
507 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-39.65
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8AM ET
300 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11AM ET
231 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-19.80
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8PM ET
176 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
5 shares @ 59.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.96
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
3 shares @ 77.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$3.08Mar 1, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$2.00Mar 1, 02:39 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$2.41Mar 1, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$2.59Mar 1, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$4.71Mar 1, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.09Mar 1, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$2.50Mar 1, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Mar 1, 02:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $2.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 02:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 02:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.