0x0d4c3c9d57a257b1e11c49488416fbd9e89edbaf
0x0d4c3c9d57a257b1e11c49488416fbd9e89edbaf
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
165
Open notional
$7.48
Total PnL
$-465.15
Realised
$-6.66
Win rate
2%
164 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 165- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$5.00
$2.45
- YES
Will Bangladesh win?
4 shares @ 52.3¢·now 64.8¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$2.48
$0.48
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
1020 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?
41 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-19.79
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
32 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-18.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
30 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-24.10
- YES
Will France win on 2026-07-18?
26 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
22 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.35
- YES
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$2.66Aug 15, 01:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$5.00Aug 15, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$2.56Aug 15, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.53Aug 14, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$2.09Aug 14, 14:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$0.00Aug 14, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$2.58Aug 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$2.09Aug 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bangladesh win?$2.07Aug 14, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$2.61Aug 14, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$5.00Aug 14, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$2.61Aug 14, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$2.56Aug 14, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$5.00Aug 13, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$2.66Aug 13, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$2.35Aug 13, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$2.51Aug 13, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.00Aug 13, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.56Aug 13, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.00Aug 13, 21:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 164 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
164 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $2.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 11:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 01:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 164 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.