Wallet digest

active

Activity score

45/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.5K

Realised

$0.45

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
54 shares @ 91.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026
$0.00
$-49.50
UP
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
37 shares @ 94.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026
$0.00
$-34.98
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
34 shares @ 94.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026
$0.00
$-32.48
UP
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
26 shares @ 97.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026
$0.00
$-24.99
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
25 shares @ 92.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026
$0.00
$-23.63
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
24 shares @ 96.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-23.59
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
24 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-12.96
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
24 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-12.50
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
24 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026
$0.00
$-12.50

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.11Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.10Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.27Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.14Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.40Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.13Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.88Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.20Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.00Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.50Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.05Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.14Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.64Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.96Jun 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.36Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.29Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.63Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.45Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.40Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.64Jun 3, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

4/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity25 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry97 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk47 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 9
Avg trade size: $5.61
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 13, 11:15 UTC
Last active: Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:10:08 UTC·src:Polymarket Data