Thrifty-Handicap
0x0dc5a561af3e3d14bec8b8fc7ef2c0776252a303
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
32
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$-8.0K
Realised
$102.79
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
1195 shares @ 45.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.2K
$649.02
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
1250 shares @ 52.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$681.25
$31.25
- SOMETHING
Nothing Ever Happens: July
2822 shares @ 5.5¢·now 23.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$671.60
$515.78
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
4094 shares @ 9.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$307.05
$-96.95
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
273 shares @ 56.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$272.26
$119.26
- YES
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
3477 shares @ 7.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$191.26
$-58.74
- YES
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
1355 shares @ 63.7¢·now 8.1¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$109.04
$-753.96
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
3585 shares @ 19.5¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$73.50
$-626.50
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
3321 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.60
$-183.40
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
2213 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$1.11
$-498.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$300.00Jul 28, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$404.00Jul 28, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$125.71Jul 28, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$77.86Jul 28, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$309.00Jul 27, 01:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8PM ET$9.26Jul 27, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$254.00Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9PM ET$5.16Jul 26, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8PM ET$5.16Jul 26, 23:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$1.7KJul 25, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 25, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$500.00Jul 25, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$650.00Jul 25, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran nuclear test before 2027?$250.00Jul 25, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$545.00Jul 25, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$120.00Jul 25, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 25, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 25, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$250.00Jul 25, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?$200.00Jul 25, 00:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $273.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 04:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.