Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

104

Open notional

$0.65

Total PnL

$-147.30

Realised

$-5.75

Win rate

102 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 104

YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August?
101 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Sep 1, 2026
$0.65
$-0.66
NO
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
1090 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.09
YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
545 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.09
NO
Will Solana reach $75 on June 30?
151 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.51
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
142 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.42
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
132 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-1.32
ECUADOR
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)
104 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.14
YES
Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?
53 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.05
YES
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?
37 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?$0.05Aug 12, 19:17 UTC
REDEEMLoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner$0.01Aug 7, 09:04 UTC
TRADESELLLoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner$0.60Aug 7, 06:29 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner$1.08Aug 7, 06:26 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?$0.98Aug 6, 16:58 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?$1.08Aug 6, 16:15 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$0.06Aug 6, 15:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$1.04Aug 6, 14:28 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August?$1.40Aug 4, 02:38 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$1.01Aug 4, 02:13 UTC
REDEEMRoland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli$2.48Aug 4, 01:24 UTC
REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$0.00Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
REDEEMLoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner$0.01Jul 28, 14:15 UTC
REDEEMLoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner$0.01Jul 28, 13:48 UTC
MERGELoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner$1.67Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
TRADESELLLoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner$0.25Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$0.08Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
TRADESELLLoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner$1.47Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox$1.63Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$0.74Jul 28, 13:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 102 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

102 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity61 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry49 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk47 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $0.78
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 27, 08:08 UTC
Last active: Aug 12, 19:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 102 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:36:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data