Urban-Shoelace
0x0e8d1af1b1cca4147734bb8c16426f03c6b15803
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-33.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on February 27?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 28?
104 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 28?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 28?
68 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Major Non-NATO Ally" in February?
54 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 28?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 28?
28 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on February 27?
27 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by February 28?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on February 28?
17 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?$0.00Mar 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Kamikaze" in February?$0.00Mar 5, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$0.00Mar 5, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump say "Insurrection Act" on Truth Social this week?$0.22Mar 1, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 1?$0.02Mar 1, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 1?$1.00Feb 28, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 1?$1.00Feb 28, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Insurrection Act" on Truth Social this week?$1.00Feb 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 28?$1.00Feb 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Atomic Energy Commission" in February?$2.00Feb 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Major Non-NATO Ally" in February?$3.00Feb 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Kamikaze" in February?$2.23Feb 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on February 28?$11.09Feb 28, 13:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 28?$2.14Feb 28, 10:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 12:12 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 5, 21:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.