Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-318.80

Realised

$-34.55

Win rate

93 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 93

YES
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?
38 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
OVER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
32 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-15.98
YES
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?
30 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-7.00
NRG
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 4 Winner
23 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-16.80
LYON
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
SENEGAL
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance
21 shares @ 42.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-9.00
T1
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs
21 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-12.00
OVER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?
18 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
MOVISTAR KOI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
16 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$0.00
$-5.50

Recent activity

TRADEBUYMap 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$1.03Aug 10, 22:45 UTC
REDEEMGames Total: O/U 2.5$1.39Aug 10, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$1.01Aug 10, 17:46 UTC
TRADESELLTotal Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?$5.82Aug 10, 17:38 UTC
TRADESELLLoL: Natus Vincere vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner$4.16Aug 10, 17:37 UTC
TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?$3.07Aug 10, 16:46 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: Natus Vincere vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner$3.04Aug 10, 16:45 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season$2.07Aug 10, 14:44 UTC
REDEEMGames Total: O/U 2.5$4.08Aug 10, 11:25 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$2.05Aug 10, 02:29 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$2.05Aug 10, 02:27 UTC
TRADESELLValorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG - Map 1 Winner$2.66Aug 9, 22:28 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG - Map 1 Winner$2.02Aug 9, 20:13 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$2.06Aug 9, 20:12 UTC
TRADESELLTotal Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?$2.56Aug 9, 17:42 UTC
TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?$1.03Aug 9, 16:48 UTC
TRADESELLGames Total: O/U 2.5$2.27Aug 9, 16:46 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$1.03Aug 9, 13:51 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$1.03Aug 9, 13:51 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$1.04Aug 9, 13:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 93 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

93 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry76 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $1.75
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 6, 02:57 UTC
Last active: Aug 10, 22:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 93 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:16:27 UTC·src:Polymarket Data