Raw-Sleet
0x0f0125231baa575531092e670ea7e347fc4c6d28
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-137.88
Realised
$1.03
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-03-15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or below on March 28?
248 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 28?
146 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?
144 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
81 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.93Jun 3, 01:28 UTC
- REWARD$0.41Jun 1, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-31?$1.02May 31, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?$1.12May 31, 04:57 UTC
- REWARD$1.74May 31, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$1.68May 30, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$1.69May 29, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLLos Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers$1.21May 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31?$0.48May 28, 17:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$0.00May 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31?$1.04May 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$1.07May 28, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$1.37May 28, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$1.03May 28, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLRoland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi$6.28May 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$1.38May 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$1.03May 28, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$1.16May 28, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$1.01May 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$3.15May 28, 17:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 12:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 01:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.