Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.6K

Realised

$-108.05

Win rate

34 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 97

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18?
669 shares @ 45.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025
$0.00
$-301.45
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
596 shares @ 31.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-187.69
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12PM ET
513 shares @ 41.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025
$0.00
$-214.15
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 4AM ET
430 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025
$0.00
$-107.32
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
284 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025
$0.00
$-55.81
OVER
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 1.5
256 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-186.82
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
216 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-110.08
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET
116 shares @ 50.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-59.03
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
113 shares @ 52.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025
$0.00
$-59.33
YES
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29?
103 shares @ 50.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025
$0.00
$-52.14

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$19.92Jul 19, 19:52 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: France O/U 1.5$7.06Jul 14, 19:24 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3PM ET$7.00Jul 14, 19:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3PM ET$13.04Jul 14, 19:05 UTC
TRADEBUYErling Haaland: 1+ goals$3.38Jul 11, 22:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$3.34Jul 11, 22:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$5.17Jul 11, 21:12 UTC
TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals$9.76Jul 11, 21:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Norway: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$10.87Jul 5, 18:42 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$10.79Jul 5, 18:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$13.58Jul 5, 16:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$0.00Jul 5, 15:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$35.29Jul 5, 15:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$20.02Jul 5, 15:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$68.32Jul 5, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$22.83Jul 5, 08:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$22.30Jul 5, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$28.59Jul 5, 06:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$27.62Jul 5, 04:00 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.08Jul 5, 00:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 34 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

34 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry76 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $72.54
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 00:49 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 19:52 UTC
Win rate sample: 34 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 01:40:47 UTC·src:Polymarket Data