Personal-Stability
0x0fb807ea195907db976527e595aa36d4b463dd2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$1.05
Total PnL
$-222.86
Realised
$1.09
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 19.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.53
$-0.47
- YES
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
10 shares @ 11.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.52
$-0.55
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
80 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-9.97
- YES
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ajax advance to the round of 16?
43 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.58
- YES
Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
35 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
30 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
27 shares @ 23.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2025$0.00
$-6.45
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
25 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMICE shooter charged by March 31?$1.37Jul 4, 18:46 UTC
- REDEEMSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$1.73Feb 27, 11:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18?$2.86Feb 27, 11:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?$2.17Feb 18, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17?$2.86Feb 18, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?$4.41Feb 18, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$8.34Feb 17, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$23.34Feb 17, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$15.06Feb 17, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18?$2.00Feb 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?$3.00Feb 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYSport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5$2.00Feb 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?$1.00Feb 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17?$2.00Feb 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYSport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score$2.00Feb 17, 12:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $3.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 20:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 18:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.