Self-Reliant-Incidence
0x0ffda171124df1aa86763568254d558b6120887a
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$12.02
Total PnL
$-40.42
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?
12 shares @ 98.3¢·now 97.7¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$12.02
$-0.08
- YES
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?
22 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-21.34
- NO
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 4?
10 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-9.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$18.00Jul 7, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$17.83Jul 7, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $100 on July 3?$24.00Jul 3, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $100 on July 3?$23.98Jul 2, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$24.00Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$23.95Jun 25, 13:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?$25.00Jun 25, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?$24.98Jun 24, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 58.5 and 59 million views in week 1?$15.83Jun 20, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 58.5 and 59 million views in week 1?$15.70Jun 19, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17?$28.00Jun 17, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17?$27.97Jun 15, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?$18.80Jun 13, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?$18.45Jun 13, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote?$19.79Jun 8, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote?$19.62Jun 7, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin O'Neil advance from the CA-48 primary election?$18.00Jun 4, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin O'Neil advance from the CA-48 primary election?$17.74Jun 1, 17:37 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by May 31?$65.06Jun 1, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$18.00Jun 1, 02:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $20.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 6, 20:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 21:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.