Red-Refuse
0x10b49a04b6f9ec06897b61550f65dd29795b48cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-69.96
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will Bernie say "Trump" 12+ times during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?
37 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Trump say "President Xi" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?
20 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-7.20
- NO
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Japan troop visit on October 28?
15 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-7.95
- YES
Will Trump say "Boeing" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?
13 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-5.33
- YES
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?
11 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-7.37
- NO
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?
10 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-5.60
- NO
Will Trump say "Tariff" 4+ times during Japan troop visit on October 28?
10 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Drug" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-4.56
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
1 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-0.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?$1.00Jan 9, 00:57 UTC
- CONVERSIONElon Musk # tweets December 5 - December 12, 2025?$1.00Dec 7, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?$1.00Dec 7, 20:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Asia" or "Asian" 8+ times during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$9.99Nov 7, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - November 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$4.80Nov 7, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - November 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.00Nov 6, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Asia" or "Asian" 8+ times during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$1.20Nov 6, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Asia" or "Asian" 8+ times during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$4.10Nov 6, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "President Xi" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$4.67Nov 6, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Boeing" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$4.64Nov 6, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Boeing" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$0.69Nov 6, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "President Xi" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$0.33Nov 6, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Drug" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$4.56Nov 6, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?$3.01Oct 30, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?$9.47Oct 30, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?$10.00Oct 30, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?$15.60Oct 30, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?$3.84Oct 29, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?$5.70Oct 29, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?$5.60Oct 29, 04:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $5.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 26, 12:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 9, 00:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".