0x10ea03416347e8a9c0d8c1457f288181900902ed
0x10ea03416347e8a9c0d8c1457f288181900902ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$155.58
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$65.05
Win rate
38%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?
298 shares @ 7.2¢·now 49.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$147.11
$125.64
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
288 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.8¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$5.18
$1.06
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
814 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.22
$-11.78
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.07
$-3.93
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026?
160 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.32
$-13.04
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026?
289 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.14
$-23.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026?
266 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.13
$-17.62
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026?
186 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.09
$-14.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026?
179 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.09
$-12.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026?
179 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.09
$-14.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.10 on July 28?$0.79Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP dip to $1.00 on July 28?$0.10Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$4.68Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 28?$0.80Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$2.14Jul 28, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.00 on July 28?$2.00Jul 28, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.00 on July 28?$0.88Jul 28, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.10 on July 28?$2.20Jul 28, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$0.61Jul 28, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$3.24Jul 28, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$2.17Jul 28, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$8.92Jul 28, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 28?$3.28Jul 28, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 27-August 2?$2.00Jul 28, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$1.15Jul 27, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?$3.00Jul 27, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?$0.43Jul 27, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$2.16Jul 27, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 27?$3.00Jul 27, 10:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.15 on July 23?$0.57Jul 23, 15:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 19:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.