Subtle-Battalion
0x110a3d1a86ef4e3cdf905ec92a5d284e59cd38a8
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$2.01
Total PnL
$930.12
Realised
$1.0K
Win rate
100%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 31.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.53
$1.52
- YES
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
7 shares @ 0.3¢·now 6.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.49
$0.46
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?
2697 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.87
- YES
Will 7 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?
1800 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.55
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?
1704 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.96
- YES
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days?
1003 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.44
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?
803 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 18?
800 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?
792 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on February 18?
650 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?$1.73Apr 6, 05:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?$1.07Mar 4, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$3.40Feb 24, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$1.09Feb 23, 20:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.10Feb 23, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$2.84Feb 23, 11:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$0.94Feb 23, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$2.52Feb 23, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$1.24Feb 23, 11:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$0.75Feb 23, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$0.42Feb 23, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.16Feb 23, 08:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$0.95Feb 23, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$0.02Feb 23, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$2.37Feb 23, 08:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.15Feb 23, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.17Feb 23, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.23Feb 23, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.22Feb 23, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$0.13Feb 22, 22:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 22, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 6, 05:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.