Understated-Stupidity
0x113173726329c3d45dde7ae70f2bf15cceb50c08
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$1.94
Total PnL
$-43.06
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
38 shares @ 50.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$1.25
$-17.99
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?
35 shares @ 39.5¢·now 1.9¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.69
$-13.27
- NO
Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?
20 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-6.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
12 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?$6.80Jul 16, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$5.20Jul 16, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$3.08Jul 16, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$4.54Jul 16, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$3.78Jul 16, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$4.70Jul 16, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$0.95Jul 16, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$0.64Jul 16, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$4.54Jul 16, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$2.95Jul 16, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$4.50Jul 16, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$3.51Jul 16, 02:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $3.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 02:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 07:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.