Hard-Moustache
0x11734ab43973f4d577186f5c963a862bb4774dbf
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-150.95
Realised
$-30.06
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or below on March 6?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7?
1021 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-39.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 5?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 38.0 million or more views on day 5?
273 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 5?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5?
71 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 12?
37 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 12?
37 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-6.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13?$10.79Mar 13, 06:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$10.79Mar 13, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$8.91Mar 13, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$7.67Mar 13, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$2.00Mar 13, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?$1.56Mar 13, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?$3.00Mar 13, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$3.00Mar 13, 03:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 12?$12.68Mar 13, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 12?$11.92Mar 12, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?$11.92Mar 12, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?$3.37Mar 12, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 12?$1.00Mar 12, 03:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 04:34 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 13, 06:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.