Nutty-Observation
0x11aa9bce88780b0ea8f0a7247fedbf1e1a312efa
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$126.54
Total PnL
$-208.60
Realised
$-13.97
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of August 10 above $345?
114 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$113.81
$-0.19
- NO
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
13 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$12.72
$-0.08
- NO
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 13?
163 shares @ 86.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-141.00
- ARTHUR RINDERKNECH
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini
14 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-7.36
- ENRICO DALLA VALLE
Cervia: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Tommaso Compagnucci
12 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- KARLOVY VARY
ELH: Karlovy Vary vs. Liberec
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.10
- LINDA FRUHVIRTOVA
Istanbul: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Laura Pigossi
10 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.02
- TIMRAA
SHL: Oerebro HK vs. Timraa
10 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.70
- BRUINS
Lightning vs. Bruins
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.85
- BOUNTY HUNTERS ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group D
9 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of August 10 above $345?$114.01Aug 11, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of July 13 2026?$114.11Aug 11, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of July 13 2026?$114.00Jul 17, 09:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June?$114.34Jul 17, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June?$114.01Jun 30, 09:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 31?$13.79Jun 26, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31?$15.43Jun 26, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?$85.27Jun 26, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?$85.18May 31, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$85.19May 31, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$85.10May 30, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 31?$13.78May 30, 11:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$98.85May 30, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$98.48May 28, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$97.89May 28, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$98.00May 28, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini$7.47May 28, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$12.80May 28, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27?$118.90May 28, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27?$118.79May 27, 12:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $101.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 02:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 06:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.