Innocent-Impudence
0x121d5c665a9b3497815216b07bc0543e20cd832a
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$665.14
Total PnL
$-7.0K
Realised
$-196.71
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1894 shares @ 17.9¢·now 20.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$391.15
$51.15
- YES
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
3102 shares @ 2.4¢·now 7.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$229.54
$156.18
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
253 shares @ 79.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$22.78
$-177.21
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
23 shares @ 43.0¢·now 55.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.87
$2.87
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
38 shares @ 1.4¢·now 8.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.28
$2.76
- YES
Will XRP reach $1.20 in July?
152 shares @ 66.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.88
$-97.12
- YES
Will Solana reach $90 in July?
167 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.33
$-98.67
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
56 shares @ 35.5¢·now 2.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.29
$-18.71
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
100000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
22000 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$216.36Jul 27, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$5.28Jul 27, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$201.68Jul 26, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$10.51Jul 26, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$10.40Jul 26, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$126.76Jul 26, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$520.76Jul 26, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 26, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$100.00Jul 25, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$395.10Jul 24, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$57.92Jul 23, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$400.00Jul 23, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$400.00Jul 23, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?$868.64Jul 23, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$57.00Jul 22, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping by July 24?$10.00Jul 22, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$10.17Jul 21, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$10.26Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping by July 22?$5.52Jul 21, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 17?$6.00Jul 20, 23:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $106.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 20:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 20:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.