Wallet profile

Careful-Noir-Equinox

0x122b758a408246a180efeb5ba654e21b553fac59

activity 48/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

106

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-66.9K

Realised

$-18.9K

Win rate

46%

46 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 106

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$45.2K

Trades

2

Buy share

0%

Window

Jun 22, 02:30 UTC → Jul 4, 01:45 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

53/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

46% win rate over 46 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

47 live trades, 4 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

46 closed markets, 46% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

0%

Sample

limited

4 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?

$23.7K · 53% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?53% of recorded volume$23.7KSpread: Colombia (-1.5)23% of recorded volume$10.3KEngland vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.513% of recorded volume$5.7K

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry17 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk38 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
47
Avg trade size
$187.06
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Aug 2, 01:00 UTC
Last active
Aug 3, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample
46 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 16:03:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data