0x124e0c267df00ebc350198c73e1e71f26a10a8a9
0x124e0c267df00ebc350198c73e1e71f26a10a8a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-4.8K
Realised
$-123.44
Win rate
17%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- YES
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+?
1138 shares @ 23.9¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$483.54
$211.81
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?
474 shares @ 82.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$424.16
$33.25
- YES
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?
557 shares @ 65.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$370.19
$5.80
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B?
296 shares @ 65.2¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$230.61
$37.76
- YES
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 84%-85%?
748 shares @ 29.2¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$175.82
$-42.69
- YES
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?
250 shares @ 21.0¢·now 35.3¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$88.25
$35.70
- NO
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B?
112 shares @ 82.0¢·now 54.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$60.63
$-31.27
- YES
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23.5B?
197 shares @ 25.8¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$57.98
$7.30
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125B?
94 shares @ 56.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$51.65
$-0.94
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?
100 shares @ 55.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$48.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?$4.41Jul 11, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 83%-84%?$11.85Jul 11, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?$6.50Jul 11, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?$21.63Jul 11, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 83%-84%?$22.20Jul 11, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 84%-85%?$110.44Jul 11, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23.5B?$22.83Jul 11, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?$173.50Jul 11, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?$9.53Jul 11, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 83%-84%?$21.46Jul 11, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 84%-85%?$56.46Jul 11, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?$105.42Jul 11, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?$3.15Jul 11, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coursera (COUR) beat quarterly earnings?$3.95Jul 11, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?$4.78Jul 11, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ally Financial (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?$3.33Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?$12.13Jul 11, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 84%-85%?$36.47Jul 11, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+?$46.73Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) Q2 capital expenditures be above $43B?$55.18Jul 11, 00:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $52.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 14:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 01:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.