Submissive-Cough
0x1257fcce55aa74aae088727967e28e102878a9ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-45.97
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
4500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
2115 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-29.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
1029 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-20.07
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8?
940 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
667 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.15
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
527 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?
417 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?
357 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$13.62Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?$5.25Jul 19, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Argentina?$5.24Jul 19, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5$19.90Jul 19, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$8.16Jul 19, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$8.23Jul 19, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$10.47Jul 19, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5$19.99Jul 19, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?$6.20Jul 19, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1.70Jul 16, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1.05Jul 16, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$4.94Jul 16, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$4.18Jul 16, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$4.20Jul 16, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$4.08Jul 16, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$5.31Jul 16, 06:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$7.52Jul 16, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$5.18Jul 16, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$5.27Jul 16, 06:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 15:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.