Lucky-Toenail
0x1268bfe04b346026cf187754236eda249acb94e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$-47.51
Win rate
54%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
2110 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.11
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 20?
1000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-7.46
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 21?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
824 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-8.24
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
471 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-22.57
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
294 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-23.53
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
233 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-28.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
228 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-29.59
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
216 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$6.31Mar 31, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$7.17Mar 28, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$22.17Mar 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$12.41Mar 28, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$12.42Mar 28, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$7.08Mar 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$14.28Mar 28, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$2.91Mar 28, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$10.00Mar 28, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$11.34Mar 28, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$5.70Mar 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$15.77Mar 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$8.71Mar 28, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$8.83Mar 28, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$8.00Mar 28, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$14.17Mar 28, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$8.14Mar 28, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$9.79Mar 28, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$9.87Mar 28, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$15.22Mar 28, 03:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
37 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $13.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 22:56 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 31, 07:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.