Wallet digest

active

Activity score

53/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

135

Open notional

$15.75

Total PnL

$-304.69

Realised

$-41.97

Win rate

28%

58 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 135

COLORADO ROCKIES
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
5 shares @ 58.6¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$2.98
$-0.14
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
5 shares @ 49.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$2.47
$-0.02
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$2.27
$-0.03
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$2.15
$0.15
SEATTLE MARINERS
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$2.07
$0.07
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
5 shares @ 39.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$1.95
$0.00
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
5 shares @ 39.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$1.82
$-0.13
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.03
$-2.27
MIAMI MARLINS
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
57 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-7.18
SEATTLE MARINERS
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
41 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-6.36

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)$2.04Jul 4, 05:06 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)$3.01Jul 4, 05:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)$1.95Jul 4, 05:05 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)$2.16Jul 4, 05:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)$1.40Jul 4, 05:04 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)$0.75Jul 4, 05:00 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)$5.00Jul 4, 04:58 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Miami Marlins (-6.5)$1.73Jul 4, 04:29 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)$0.98Jul 4, 04:23 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Miami Marlins (-5.5)$3.97Jul 4, 04:17 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)$2.04Jul 4, 04:16 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)$4.33Jul 4, 04:13 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)$2.81Jul 4, 04:13 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)$1.73Jul 4, 04:09 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)$0.95Jul 4, 04:09 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)$1.42Jul 4, 04:09 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)$1.62Jul 4, 04:07 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)$0.73Jul 4, 04:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)$1.35Jul 4, 04:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)$1.73Jul 4, 04:06 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

28% win rate over 58 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

58 closed markets, 28% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry50 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $1.76
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 03:48 UTC
Last active: Jul 4, 05:06 UTC
Win rate sample: 58 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:07:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data