Unfolded-Scrutiny
0x12bd6ca87b06f1a47178cb63e8b973a38c35aa80
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$306.81
Total PnL
$-823.83
Realised
$-43.27
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1061 shares @ 12.6¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$134.22
$0.52
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1083 shares @ 7.4¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$92.62
$12.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?
18 shares @ 39.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$17.99
$10.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?
109 shares @ 15.8¢·now 11.2¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$12.18
$-5.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 28?
12 shares @ 15.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$11.73
$9.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 28?
10 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$9.99
$7.39
- NO
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of July?
46 shares @ 21.9¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.23
$-1.77
- YES
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
25 shares @ 39.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$6.38
$-3.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?
20 shares @ 29.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.10
$-0.70
- NO
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$4.90
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 28?$0.39Jul 28, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?$3.00Jul 28, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?$11.10Jul 28, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?$0.44Jul 28, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?$3.00Jul 28, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?$1.45Jul 28, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?$1.78Jul 28, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?$1.89Jul 28, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?$1.25Jul 28, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 28?$1.05Jul 28, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 28?$3.06Jul 28, 10:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 28?$19.90Jul 28, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?$2.82Jul 28, 06:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?$3.85Jul 28, 06:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 28?$1.02Jul 28, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 28?$2.70Jul 28, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 27?$19.98Jul 28, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?$4.40Jul 28, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?$3.60Jul 28, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?$11.70Jul 28, 05:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 06:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.