Ugly-Cost
0x12df316209e26a4cc7c79b947d25977c4150090d
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$11.40
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$-53.25
Win rate
0%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
119 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.91
$-1.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
31 shares @ 6.3¢·now 3.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.98
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
15 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.80
$-0.65
- YES
Will Jude Bellingham be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
71 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.43
$-5.97
- YES
Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
45 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$-2.93
- KARMINE CORP BLUE
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner
3900 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-39.00
- YES
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?
3730 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-71.10
- NO
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?
545 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-59.15
- OVER
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5
310 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-133.18
- NO
Will Intel say "Growth" 5+ times during earnings call?
288 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-25.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?$29.81Aug 12, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Procter & Gamble say "Customer" 5+ times during earnings call?$99.48Aug 12, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?$24.20Jul 26, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?$23.16Jul 25, 03:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill American Express say "Tariff" during earnings call?$71.40Jul 24, 17:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Verizon say "Spectrum" during earnings call?$115.46Jul 24, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Express say "Tariff" during earnings call?$30.91Jul 24, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Express say "Tariff" during earnings call?$7.73Jul 24, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Express say "Tariff" during earnings call?$15.45Jul 24, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Verizon say "Spectrum" during earnings call?$47.12Jul 24, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Express say "Luxury" during earnings call?$18.08Jul 24, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?$13.36Jul 24, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?$10.58Jul 24, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?$4.53Jul 24, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Verizon say "Leverage" during earnings call?$1.81Jul 24, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Customer" 5+ times during earnings call?$23.58Jul 24, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Express say "Airline" during earnings call?$13.08Jul 24, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dow say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during earnings call?$28.93Jul 24, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dow say "Iran" during earnings call?$29.86Jul 23, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Verizon say "Public" during earnings call?$21.87Jul 23, 16:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
73 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $13.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 00:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 11:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.