Lively-Granola
0x1385c8133700a0e58fc69f4a7ed74f02cc2a1cf9
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-13.1K
Realised
$-2.3K
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?
235000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-235.00
- YES
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?
222000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-222.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3?
87542 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-267.62
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
82324 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-369.88
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
70802 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-979.26
- NO
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
62000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-62.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3?
49328 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-99.99
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
37954 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-309.44
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3?
36903 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-181.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
33833 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-84.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$74.00Mar 5, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$189.23Mar 4, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - March 4, 11AM ET$55.00Mar 4, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - March 4, 11AM ET$50.00Mar 4, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$10.24Mar 4, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$5.00Mar 4, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.50Mar 4, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$31.45Mar 4, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$223.08Mar 4, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$340.04Mar 4, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$345.68Mar 4, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$214.00Mar 4, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$213.41Mar 4, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$2.00Mar 4, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$5.00Mar 4, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$7.00Mar 4, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$150.00Mar 4, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$150.00Mar 4, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$100.00Mar 4, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate no one before 2027?$406.98Mar 4, 08:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $168.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 17:12 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 5, 19:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".