0x13b12341b031d14c355e19c5ca79bc30d04b97c3
0x13b12341b031d14c355e19c5ca79bc30d04b97c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$1.95
Total PnL
$-49.76
Realised
$-3.10
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
10 shares @ 39.5¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$-2.81
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
12 shares @ 30.5¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.93
$-2.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on January 27?
190 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 1?
189 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.89
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
88 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.79
- YES
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
40 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on January 31?
32 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
23 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
20 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on January 26?$1.02Mar 1, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on February 23?$3.02Mar 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 22?$3.07Mar 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$4.27Mar 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$31.89Mar 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$7.02Mar 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$24.73Mar 1, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on February 23?$2.89Feb 22, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 22?$2.89Feb 22, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$0.68Feb 22, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$2.56Feb 22, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$2.95Feb 22, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$2.95Feb 22, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$2.95Feb 22, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$2.95Feb 22, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 22?$2.95Feb 22, 07:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$2.38Feb 18, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 50°F or higher on February 2?$3.38Feb 18, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on January 29?$11.52Feb 18, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on February 3?$9.50Feb 18, 22:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 02:51 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 08:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.