Direct-Programme
0x13e0562f854cfa4f5e648a33f5dd490553587465
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-5.6K
Realised
$80.54
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30?
300 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$298.50
$1.50
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 30?
300 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$298.35
$0.54
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 29?
294 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$289.37
$1.22
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 29?
280 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$278.76
$0.38
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 29?
217 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$216.32
$0.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 30?
14390 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-48.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on April 26?
1975 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on April 26?
1362 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 30?
1270 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-46.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on April 29?
1234 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-6.13
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 29?$9.50Jul 28, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 29?$5.99Jul 28, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 29?$95.00Jul 28, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 29?$76.82Jul 28, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 29?$96.77Jul 28, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 28?$65.04Jul 28, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,050 on July 28?$0.20Jul 28, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 28?$9.88Jul 28, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 28?$98.00Jul 28, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 28?$90.01Jul 28, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 29?$97.50Jul 28, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 29?$97.90Jul 28, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on July 26?$0.16Jul 28, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 28?$65.05Jul 28, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 28?$18.91Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,050 on July 28?$99.30Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 28?$45.30Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 28?$52.69Jul 28, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on July 28?$99.90Jul 28, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 29?$82.28Jul 28, 20:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $52.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.