Surprised-Governance
0x140b0493f169bc14c1a86041c8d6e8a00f2b2ec0
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
100
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- YES
Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?
5271 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
5115 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-463.33
- YES
Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?
4846 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Rental Family win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
2466 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-62.50
- YES
Will The Diplomat win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series?
2277 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will Shrinking win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series?
2135 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Xi visit the US before September?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?
1983 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2025$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will Slow Horses win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series?
1952 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-16.99
- YES
Will Paradise win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series?
1820 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-16.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSeahawks vs. Patriots$14.69Feb 8, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?$0.74Feb 8, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?$4.79Feb 8, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?$5.14Feb 8, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?$2.34Feb 8, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?$1.67Feb 8, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rental Family win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$62.50Jan 23, 19:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?$62.50Dec 26, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$50.52Sep 28, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$100.00Sep 28, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLJohn Bolton federally charged by October 31?$150.52Sep 28, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYJohn Bolton federally charged by October 31?$9.42Aug 23, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump jail Liz Cheney?$2.00Aug 23, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Adams be removed as NYC mayor?$2.00Aug 23, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Swift release a new original album by August 31?$1.00Aug 23, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYZohran Mamdani arrested before September?$2.00Aug 23, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September?$2.00Aug 23, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out of custody by August 31?$2.00Aug 23, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin body double in Alaska confirmed by August 31? $2.00Aug 23, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by August 31?$3.00Aug 23, 19:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $17.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 21:14 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 8, 11:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.