Violet-Thought
0x1417b6fd7444b2f1091b5c8357cf89ecafb238af
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$1.24
Total PnL
$-889.73
Realised
$3.24
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 22?
88 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?
35 shares @ 3.7¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.49
$-0.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 21?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 18?
200 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-193.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 8?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 27?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 2?
100 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?
100 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NIGMA GALAXY
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro (BO3)
60 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 21?$90.00Jul 21, 23:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 21, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 21, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?$0.19Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?$0.00Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?$0.10Jul 21, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 21?$29.52Jul 21, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 21?$29.55Jul 21, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 21?$29.61Jul 21, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?$6.97Jul 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?$1.40Jul 21, 02:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 20?$100.00Jul 20, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 20?$98.10Jul 20, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$0.00Jul 20, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$1.20Jul 20, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$0.80Jul 20, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 20?$1.14Jul 20, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$20.00Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 19?$99.89Jul 19, 15:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $16.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 06:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 23:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.