Alarmed-Iceberg
0x14201efdc8d106a01f8ecef93fe88fc3975e8f14
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$-188.24
Win rate
65%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
9925 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-137.44
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
4007 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-17.01
- NO
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
3286 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-69.69
- TEARLAMENTS
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tearlaments (BO1)
2296 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 29, 2025$0.00
$-90.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Luck" this week? (December 8 - 14)
2211 shares @ 62.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m?
2058 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-41.71
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?
1250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
990 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-0.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?$56.76Mar 10, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?$55.06Mar 9, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?$3.00Feb 25, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?$2.00Feb 25, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?$5.00Feb 25, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?$4.00Feb 25, 03:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$17.92Feb 25, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$10.00Feb 24, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?$0.04Feb 23, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?$10.00Feb 23, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?$1.00Feb 23, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?$10.00Feb 22, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?$1.00Feb 22, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?$20.00Feb 21, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?$5.00Feb 21, 22:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$108.11Feb 21, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$83.21Feb 21, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$20.00Feb 20, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$1.00Feb 20, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$1.00Feb 20, 20:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $17.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 16, 11:01 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 10, 10:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".