Wallet profile

Melodic-Thunderbolt

0x1455445e9a775cfa3fe9fc4b02bb4d2f682ae5cd

activity 36/100

Wallet digest

Activity score

36/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.9M

Realised

$514.65

Win rate

53%

49 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$76.51Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$126.83Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$61.86Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$244.92Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$143.22Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$74.84Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$215.20Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$170.96Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$128.86Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$226.18Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$296.47Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$322.30Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$221.50Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$128.45Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$161.65Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$175.95Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$213.80Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$174.62Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$178.86Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$64.14Jun 18, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100
read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

53% win rate over 49 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record
pass

49 closed markets, 53% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry82 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
0
Avg trade size
$0.00
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 19, 00:35 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
49 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 09:34:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data