Troubled-Rehospitalization
0x1457dc72f8db5dce47d282fdc38ef58f82985c6e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-52.66
Realised
$-0.67
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?
279 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?
267 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?
265 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Missing Epstein cell footage released before August?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLPaetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31?$4.50Aug 21, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 19-25?$1.00Aug 21, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYPaetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31?$1.00Jul 27, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?$1.14Jul 27, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUY"Fantastic 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is below 80%?$1.00Jul 27, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUY"The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score 90+%?$1.00Jul 27, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?$1.00Jul 27, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?$1.00Jul 26, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?$1.00Jul 26, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?$1.00Jul 26, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?$1.00Jul 26, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.00Jul 26, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?$1.00Jul 26, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?$1.00Jul 26, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUY2025 July hottest on record?$1.00Jul 26, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYMissing Epstein cell footage released before August?$1.00Jul 26, 01:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Jerome Powell by July 31?$14.29Jul 26, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?$1.00Jul 20, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?$1.00Jul 20, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?$1.00Jul 20, 16:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $3.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 18:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 08:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.